December 31st, 2006

As I ponder my navel

I have, over the years, read about various commentators predicting a set of "things" that will come to be over the next 12 months. I remember some year in the later part of the 1990s being "the year of Linux on the desktop" etc etc. As is any form of navel gazing, the hit rates are not that good.

Having said that, I think I would like to document my own IT predictions for the coming year:

a) Virtualization will change in fundamental ways how IT resources are used. The value proposition of Xen/Linux and also the kvm/Linux will push the likes of VMware and M$ virtualization to the sidelines.
b) Vista will have a major security breach that will cause some serious financial losses that will prompt the US CERT and the DoD along with the EU banning the deployment of Vista entirely.
c) The Singapore government's Standard Operating Environment (SOE) tender will either be cancelled or totally revamped because of Singapore's adoption of the ODF as a national standard.
d) will be bought by google.
e) OpenSuse and OpenSolaris will increase in prominance but will continue to be lagging further behind because of the growth of Fedora and Ubuntu.
f) Adobe's flash and related technologies and formats will become open standards and wind their way to becoming ISO standards.

Let's see how this fares on December 31, 2007.